Adapting to climate change
Consequences of global warming
Climate models demonstrate the associated global temperature changes we can expect, depending on how successful we are at reducing emissions. However, regardless of our efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, there will be some unavoidable climate change from now until the 2040s, due to the influence of our past emissions on the climate system.
We can group the effects of climate change on our climate systems into three categories.
1. Temperature-related phenomena:
- Higher daily summer temperatures
- Longer and more frequent hot spells in the summer
- Warmer night temperatures
- Less frequent sub-zero temperatures
2. Water-related phenomena:
- Variation of precipitation distribution and quantity
- Increased periods of consecutive dry days
- Sea-level rise
3. Extreme weather events:
- Changes in frequency of occurrence
- Increased intensity of events
- Geographical concentration of events might change
Climate change in the UK
The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established to provide information on climate-change impacts and help businesses adapt to these unavoidable impacts. Based on current climate projections, the UK can expect the following impacts.
Temperature-related impacts:
- Annual warming of between 0.5º and 1.5º C by 2020
- By 2050, annual warming of up to 3º C
- Regional disparity in warming patterns - greater summer warming in the South
Water-related impacts:
- Wetter winters, by up to 15 per cent by 2020 and up to 25 per cent by 2050
- Drier summers, by up to 20 per cent by 2020 and up to 40 per cent by 2050
- Sea-level rise of between 4cm and 14cm by 2020 and between 7cm and 30cm by 2050
- Larger storm surges and higher waves
The extent and nature of these impacts will vary across the UK. The English regions as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have carried out scoping studies to identify the key impacts to prepare for. Flooding constitutes the most frequently cited impact of climate change across all regions.
Climate-change projections
In spring 2009, UKCIP will publish updated climate-change projections for the UK. These projections are important because:
- Climate-change impacts will be accompanied by probabilities to indicate the likelihood of certain events happening. We can expect the projections to say ‘based on our current understanding, there is X per cent probability there will be this much change’.
- Resources including reports, maps, online help and guidance will be available to decision makers (from both the private and public sector) to help with business continuity planning and business strategy.
- The projections generally cover 25km × 25km land grid squares, and in some cases 5km × 5km for more location-specific projections.
International impacts of climate change
Changes in climate systems vary across regions of the world. The climate science presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (PDF) indicates that these changes are happening already and are likely to continue in the future.
Produced in association with Ecofys UK Ltd